According to the most recent YouGov poll, the Conservatives are on set to be 21 seats short of a majority in the upcoming election.
The new study showed that Theresa May would win 305 seats this week, 21 short to achieve a majority.
This is a completely different outcome from polls conducted at the start of the election campaign process, where most suggested an overwhelming Conservative victory. Labour’s ratings have steadily improved and the gap between the two parties has narrowed.
The improvement of Labour has been seen across all polls in recent weeks, but some polls differ on how much the left-wing party are gaining support.
In the most recent Kantar Public poll, the Conservative lead reached 10 percent. For ComRes, the Conservatives have a lead of 14 percent.
Lord Ashcroft Polls, last week predicted the Conservatives were on course for a majority.
Polls are, however, famously hard to trust. With cases such as the EU referendum and the US Presidential election, it is clear that polls often fail.
Polls in the UK are also known to overestimate the Labour party, whilst underestimating the Tories. This was seen in the 2015 General Election where polls suggested that the election was headed for a dead heat but instead led to an outright majority for the Conservative party.
Polls are sometimes more accurate, seen in the French Presidential election were they were very accurate in the first round of voting.
Almost major pollsters have changed their methods since the 2015 UK general election.
Some of the Adjustments included raising the age threshold for the oldest band of voters, as well as weighting results by educational background and interest in politics. The biggest changes surrounding estimate turnout, especially the turnout for different groups of voters.
YouGov and Ipsos MORI have recently taken to accounting to whether respondents have voted in the past or whether they usually vote.